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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.