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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."